Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 2.104594 2.231870 2.365977 2.518351 2.687341 2.869786 3.082692
2025-09-21 1.890841 2.062277 2.251562 2.477901 2.743689 3.049127 3.431519
2025-09-28 1.745926 1.938879 2.158522 2.430360 2.762570 3.162036 3.689590
2025-10-05 1.680455 1.895642 2.147250 2.468454 2.875760 3.387198 4.099439
2025-10-12 1.629466 1.862769 2.141917 2.508104 2.988136 3.615572 4.535132
2025-10-19 1.582918 1.830397 2.132482 2.538403 3.086738 3.830668 4.975902
2025-10-26 1.524218 1.778462 2.093756 2.525707 3.123755 3.960950 5.305965
2025-11-02 1.471870 1.731099 2.057132 2.511651 3.155308 4.083145 5.636380
2025-11-09 1.418451 1.679374 2.011434 2.481253 3.159624 4.162970 5.906085
2025-11-16 1.368875 1.630180 1.966218 2.448000 3.155992 4.228255 6.157570
2025-11-23 1.336853 1.602362 1.947792 2.450440 3.204011 4.377008 6.577306
2025-11-30 1.314098 1.585592 1.943069 2.471384 3.280403 4.577583 7.126458
2025-12-07 1.272354 1.542393 1.900971 2.436790 3.269917 4.635067 7.413009
2025-12-14 1.231939 1.499609 1.857737 2.398222 3.250350 4.674877 7.671029
2025-12-21 1.192038 1.456153 1.811800 2.353125 3.216868 4.686333 7.869662
2025-12-28 1.180660 1.451239 1.819759 2.389262 3.317873 4.949411 8.687140
2026-01-04 1.170409 1.447318 1.828661 2.426856 3.423586 5.233353 9.633157
2026-01-11 1.158066 1.439907 1.831989 2.455570 3.515857 5.502549 10.626988
2026-01-18 1.134716 1.416169 1.810445 2.443539 3.535406 5.627769 11.266453
2026-01-25 1.112252 1.392994 1.788844 2.430218 3.551414 5.747111 11.927841
2026-02-01 1.086670 1.364651 1.758597 2.401400 3.537132 5.800193 12.402613
2026-02-08 1.061556 1.336340 1.727520 2.369862 3.515764 5.835567 12.834054
2026-02-15 1.046557 1.322204 1.717271 2.372176 3.557630 6.016502 13.837240